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Prediction for CME (2022-05-23T12:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-05-23T12:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20304/-1
CME Note: The likely source is an C5.2 class flare associated eruption from AR3017 (about N14W23). Brightening is seen SDO AIA 131 while an EUV wave is seen propagating to the south and east towards the central meridian.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-28T15:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20308/1
Model Inputs:
2022-05-23T12:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=18.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=244.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2022-05-24T02:16Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-05-28T15:30Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-05-28T11:09Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220524_021600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 117.42 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2022-05-23T18:05Z

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